The fifth Balochistan war

Rashed Rahman

With the nationalists outraged over the rape incident and alienated by the perception that the government was only going through the motions of serious engagement with the long standing and long neglected problems of Balochistan, it seems unlikely that, even if the recommendations of the two committees are implemented, it will in the immediate future lead to a cessation of hostilities

The fifth Balochistan war has begun. In house to house search operations in Sui over the Eid holidays, at least 7,000 regular troops assisted by paramilitary Frontier Corps (FC) personnel, backed by tanks, armoured personnel carriers, artillery, helicopter gunships and reconnaissance drones started looking for the 37 persons named in an FIR regarding the attacks on the Sui gas plant between January 7 and 11. Fifteen people died in those clashes, most of them FC and Defence Security Guard (DSG) personnel. The persons named in the FIR include Nawab Akbar Bugti’s son Jamil Bugti and grandson Burhamdagh Bugti.

Another FIR against more people from the area is imminent, according to Humayun Marri, provincial president of the Jamhoori Watan Party. He says security was beefed up and the telephone lines to Sui and Dera Bugti disconnected before the launch of the operation. About 200 persons were arrested in the area over the Eid holidays. This brings to 300-plus the number of persons detained. Bulldozers have demolished the houses of those suspected of being involved in the attacks on the gas plant. The gas plant has now been restored to normal operation. That cannot of course do away with the knock-on effect on the economy of even a few days’ disruption of gas supplies.

Meanwhile the railway track at Sariab near Quetta was blown up on Saturday. A passenger train escaped narrowly. Three rockets landed in a residential area, Killi Shabo, in the provincial capital, Quetta. Four bombs were detonated outside government officials’ homes in Mach, Khuzdar (two), and Kalat. Fortunaely, none of these incidents resulted in loss of life. Though Sui itself saw no further clashes, this is because the guerrillas have moved away. Attacks are now dispersed widely over the province. This is a pattern likely to be sustained in the low intensity warfare now in its early stages in the province.

Sindhi nationalist parties had called for a strike on Monday in solidarity with the Baloch and to protest against the rape of the doctor in Sui by DSG personnel, which is in progress at the time of writing these lines.

If the government has a two-pronged strategy in Balochistan, the military prong is already in action. This is going to act as the proverbial red rag to the bull. The scale and intensity of guerrilla attacks all over the province is likely to increase in the days ahead. The political part of the strategy, including ideas being floated by the two sub-committees of the parliamentary committee on Balochistan set up by PML president Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, seems to be a case of too little too late to stop the escalation of violence in the province.

The Mushahid committee has mooted a 15-20 percent raise in Sui gas royalty and 20-30 percent increase in development funds for Balochistan. The other sub-committee, headed by the minister for states and frontier regions, Sardar Yar Mohammad Rind, has recommended a “substantial job quota” for Balochistan in all federal ministries, departments and state-run corporations, apart from police, FC and some federal departments. Mr Rind has revealed that currently there is no Grade-22 Baloch officer. Balochistan is currently getting a 3.5 percent quota of jobs against the 5.2 percent determined in the last census, the minister said. Even the job quota laid down in the 1973 Constitution has never been implemented.

In addition, according to Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, a vocational training institute is to be set up in Gwadar to train local youths and prepare them with the requisite skills to get employment. This is good news for the ears of the jobless engineers and agriculture graduates who were on hunger strike unto death since January 15 in Quetta. They have now called off their strike after assurances by a provincial minister that the unemployment issue will be resolved now. Whether this ‘package’ will have a salutary effect on the situation in Balochistan is a moot point. It could have worked if the following steps had been taken in time.

One, the suspects of the ghastly rape incident should have been arrested and subjected to the full force of the law, irrespective of the fact that they are in uniform. If anything, had that been done instead of an attempted cover-up by the PPL management, things may not have come to such a pass. It has been reported that COAS General Musharraf has asked the Captain allegedly involved to take a DNA test to prove his guilt or innocence in the matter. It is amazing that it takes the commander-in-chief’s order to do even the most initial investigation of such a serious crime. Two, the Baloch nationalist leaders should have been approached to reverse their decision to withdraw from the deliberations of the Mushahid committee.

According to Sardar Attaullah Mengal, they did the committee members a favour by withdrawing, thereby saving them the embarrassment of being exposed for being a powerless body. With the nationalists outraged over the rape incident and alienated by the perception that the government was only going through the motions of serious engagement with the long standing and long neglected problems of Balochistan, it seems unlikely that, even if the recommendations of the two committees are implemented, it will in the immediate future lead to a cessation of hostilities.

Despite advice from knowledgeable observers to address the problems of Balochistan with some urgency, General Musharraf’s regime has chosen to talk tough. Reportedly, there has been a tussle between hawks and doves at the highest level, with the former winning a half-victory in the shape of the deployment of the army in Sui and its operations against suspected insurgents. The doves, who seek a political approach, seem to have been overtaken by events on the ground. If this reading is correct, the Musharraf regime has opened up a third front against itself after Waziristan and the impending opposition movement. 25.01.05

The writer, currently a freelance contributor, has held editorial positions in various Pakistani newspapers