BALOCH FREEDOM STRUGGLE: THE ROAD AHEAD

From Saag.org By B. Raman

The massacre of Nawab Akbar Bugti, the legendary leader of the Baloch freedom struggle, and some of his close associates by the Pakistan Air Force and Army in a three-day operation against their hide-out in a cave between Dera Bugti and Kohlu in Balochistan between August 24 and 26, 2006, seems to have happened due to three fatal mistakes committed by the Baloch freedom-fighters and their friends.

Their first mistake was their non-observance of the principle of wide dispersal of the leadership. While the foot soldiers of the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA)  and other pro-independence groups showed a remarkable capability for operating autonomously in small cells of not more than two or three without undue dependence on their command and control, the political and operational leaders of the movement tended to flock and stay together instead of dispersing themselves. This provided the Air Force and the Army with an opportunity for a decapitation strike aimed at the entire leadership in one go.

Whenever the Balochs had risen in revolt against the Pakistani Armed Forces, it was the Pakistan Air Force, which tilted the scale against the freedom-fighters by taking advantage of the tendency of the leaders of the independence movement to flock together.  What happened between August 24 and 26, 2006, was a repeat of what happened in the early 1970s. After the Pakistan Army failed to quell the independence movement, Zulfiquar Ali Bhutto, then in power, sent the Air Force to crush the movement.

The second mistake was their non-observance of communication discipline. The freedom-fighters had correctly analysed that one of the reasons for their failure in the 1970s was their neglect of the importance of psychological warfare and their consequent failure to publicise their case and take it to the international community.

This time, particularly since December last year when Gen. Pervez Musharraf ordered the Air Force and the Army to crush the freedom-fighters, they were devoting more attention to PSYWAR and publicity with the help of a number of enthusiastic and well-motivated Baloch youth living and working abroad.  Thanks to their efforts, the international community has been better informed this time about the Baloch freedom struggle than it was in the 1970s.

For this publicity effort, the leaders of the freedom struggle based in Balochistan should have kept the exercise confined to the use of audio and video recorded messages and interviews and occasionally the Internet if they knew how to do so in a secure manner.  Unfortunately, in their over-enthusiasm, they started using the telephone very freely without a proper understanding of the security risks of using telephones.

Nawab Bugti himself was freely using his satellite telephone for keeping in touch with his followers abroad and for giving interviews to foreign journalists.  Frequent telephone calls for interviews to Nawab Bugti by some over-enthusiastic Indian journalists seem to have contributed to the kiss of death, which felled Nawab Bugti.

In the 1970s, the Pakistan military and its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) had very little capability for the collection of technical intelligence (TECHINT). Their TECHINT capability has tremendously improved since 9/11 due to the gifting of the latest interception equipment  by the US' National Security Agency (NSA) and the training of Pakistani intelligence officers by the NSA. The US gave all this equipment and training to enable the Pakistan Army pinpoint the location of Osama bin Laden and other remnants of Al Qaeda and arrest, kill or capture them. Gen. Musharraf diverted all this equipment for use against the Baloch freedom-fighters.

The third mistake was the absence of fire discipline. After Pakistan's TECHINT analysts had managed to identify the cave in which, according to them, the GHQ of the independence movement was located, the Air Force and the Army did not immediately raid the place. They sent a US-gifted helicopter gunship over the area for an on-the-spot-observation. One of the freedom-fighters in the cave reportedly opened fire on the helicopter, thereby confirming the location of their hide-out. The air strikes and the military raids followed thereafter.

All independence struggles----even those led by legendary leaders such as Mao Tase-Dong and Ho Chi-Minh--- experience such set-backs. They make an objective analysis of the set-back, draw the right lessons, make mid-march corrections and resume marching ahead. That is what the brave Baloch freedom-fighters are likely to do. Tactical set-backs are stepping stones to the ultimate strategic victory.

Gen. Pervez Musharraf has been as defiant as ever and has shown no sign of any remorse over the brutal massacre of Nawab Bugti and his followers. However, his civilian subordinates, including Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, have refrained from any claims of triumphalism and have tried to project the death of Nawab Bugti as not targeted killing. In unconvincing explanations, they have tried to blame the Baloch freedom fighters themselves for the tragedy.  They have claimed that Nawab Bugti was killed as a result of the accidental explosion of the land-mines, which had been planted by the freedom-fighters outside the cave. Nobody believes this explanation.

Musharraf would have no reason to be unduly worried by the strong criticism of the mowing down of the Baloch freedom fighters by the opposition political leaders and the coalition of fundamentalist parties. Their angry reactions would be manageable . There are so far no signs of any questioning by senior officers of the armed forces of the wisdom of the operation, which killed Nawab Bugti.

What Musharraf would be worried about is the public reaction in Balochistan itself and the possibility of the BLA recovering from the tragedy and resuming its operations. The widespread public anger in Balochistan was expected. It is not so far showing signs of getting out of control.

Initial reports had said that not only Nawab Bugti, but also his two grand-sons and the leaders of the BLA were killed in the air strike. Subsequent reports  have claimed that only Nawab Bugti was buried in the rubble and that the younger freedom fighters, including the leaders of the BLA, managed to escape. If this is true, they should be able to keep the movement marching forward until an independent Balochistan is achieved.

They would definitely feel the loss of Nawab Bugti. He was their friend, philosopher and guide. He was charismatic and articulate. He was an iconic personality, who compelled the attention of the international community. Balochistan has many leaders  with similar charisma, stature and personality.  One of them should step forward and take over the responsibility for guiding the younger freedom-fighters.

Musharraf has been following a two-pronged policy in Balochistan. He has been relying on the Air Force and the Army to put down the freedom movement. At the same time, he has been following a policy of divide and rule. As part of this, he has persuaded or pressured a large number of Balochs living for decades in Punjab and Sindh to go back to Balochistan and help the military in countering the freedom-fighters. He has allotted to them the land and other property confiscated from the freedom-fighters. He has also promised them a substantial share of the royalty from the gas revenue.  He is likely to intensify the divide and rule policy in order to break the back of the freedom movement. The freedom-fighters should not fall a prey to this.

There is considerable disappointment and even anger among the Baloch youth  over the surprisingly mild language ("unfortunate") used by the Government of India in its reaction to the massacre of Nawab Bugti and his followers. They expected a much stronger reaction.  No Baloch has ever been involved in acts of jihadi terrorism against India. The Baloch leaders have always protected the Hindus living in Balochistan.  "Is this the way to reciprocate the solidarity which we have always expressed towards India?" they ask.

The following message emanating from a Baloch youth leader typically expresses their anger and anguish: "India could not help us whereas we stood beside India throughout our history. We protect Hindus whereas  all over Pakistan they were hunted and killed.  A brave friend is better than a coward friend.  India always showed her cowardliness in front of this fake Paki state."

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: itschen36@gmail.com )  29.8.06